Fitch Ratings’ December 2025 report increased India’s FY26 GDP forecast from 6.9% to 7.4%. Consumer spending is the key growth driver, supported by GST reforms and real income growth.

Projections

• FY26: 7.4%
• FY27: 6.4%
• FY28: 6.2%

Inflation expected to be 1.5% in FY26, rising to 4.4% in FY27, with October 2025 inflation at 0.3%.

Global growth forecast increased to 2.5% in CY25, moderating to 2.4% in CY26.

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